Aust dollar closes down

Thursday, November 26, 2009 » 06:56pm


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The Australian dollar closed lower after worse-than-expected capital expenditure data weakened investor expectations for a December interest rate rise.

At 1700 AEDT, the Australian dollar was trading at 92.20 US cents, down from Wednesday's close of 92.42 cents.

During the domestic session, the local unit traded between 92.26 US cents and 92.09 cents.

CMC Markets market analyst David Taylor said the Australian dollar came under pressure during the local trading day after weaker-than-expected capital expenditure data was released at 1130 AEDT.

'The Australian dollar has been declining all day,' he said.

'The worse-than-expected capex data makes for a slightly less hawkish outlook for a rate rise next week.

'And lower domestic equity markets today took some risk appetite off the table.'

New private capital expenditure fell by a seasonally adjusted 3.9 per cent in real terms in the September quarter, well below market expectations of a one per cent rise, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Thursday.

The series' fourth estimate for business spending over the 2009/10 financial year was $105.010 billion, up six per cent from the the June quarter's fourth estimate of $90.557 billion.

The debt futures market has now priced in about a 70 per cent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate to 3.75 per cent from its current 3.5 per cent on December 1.

'Generally speaking, the (fourth estimate spending) was encouraging but the market was looking for more than that.

'I know economists were looking at the capex to be the driving force behind the rate rise.

'The capex data probably reduced the possibility of a rate rise a little bit.'

Meanwhile, the Australian share market closed weaker.

At 1615 AEDT the benchmark SP/ASX200 index was down 0.29 per cent at 4,708.6 points, while the broader All Ordinaries had fallen 0.28 per cent to 4,727.6 points.

At 1700 AEDT, the Australian dollar was trading at 79.85 yen, down from Wednesday's close of 81.66 yen and at 61.05 euro cents, down from 61.69 euro cents.

The euro finished at 1.5099 US dollars, up from Wednesday's close of 1.4983 US dollars, and at 130.77 Japanese yen, down from 132.37 yen previously.

The US dollar ended the local session at 86.60 Japanese yen, down from 88.35 yen previously.

Meanwhile, the Australian bond market closed firmer.

At 1630 AEDT, the yield on the Commonwealth Government March 2019 bond was at 5.287 per cent, down from Wednesday's close of 5.398 per cent, while the yield on the April 2012 bond was at 4.711, down from 4.791 per cent previously.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the December 10-year bond futures contract was at 94.705, up from Wednesday's close of 94.590, while the December three-year bond futures contract was at 95.200, up from 95.110 previously.

Between the release of the data and the close on Thursday afternoon, December three year bond futures rallied 11 ticks, December 10-year bond futures rallied 10 and March 90 day bank bill futures gained eight.

'And it looks like the capex data drove it,' ICAP economist Adam Carr said.

'The ABS capex data was quite a bit weaker than the market was expecting and I think that's spooked people that maybe the RBA's not going to hike next week,' he said.

The 90-day bank bill rate closed at 3.990 per cent, down from Wednesday's close of 4.000 per cent, while the 180-day bank bill rate closed steady at 4.390 per cent from Wednesday.

At 1600 AEDT, the Reserve Bank of Australia's trade weighted index (TWI) was at 70.2, down from Wednesday's close of 70.7.